After the volatile start of the year for many asset classes, trends turned in the middle of February. Since then it has largely been a one-way move. So, where do we stand now? In this post we review the current trend phase situation among asset classes. For details check the Trend Phase Report.
The main concentration of asset classes is now found in the Strength and Bull Phases, 71% in total. Merely 14% are in the weaker phases.
Commodities are mostly in Recovery or Strength. CO Precious Metals have trended strongly – currently in the Bull Phase.
Emerging Markets equities have moved into Recovery and Strength Phases. US equities are somewhat stronger.
Fixed-Income is mostly split between Bull and Warning, FI US High-Yield lagging some.
You are welcome to contact us to discuss implications of the current trend situation. Send a note to Ulf Björkman.
After the recent rout among multiple asset classes we provide a snap-shot of the current trend status.
The Bear Phase concentration is significantly high. The current reading is 80%. Only Fixed Income US and EU Govt are in Strength or Bull Phases. For details check the Trend Phase Report.
In terms of overbought/oversold situations, the most oversold asset classes are CO Energy, EQ US Mid Cap Value and EQ EM Latin America. No asset class is currently in overbought territory. View the current situation in the Overbought/Oversold Report.
Checking the Indicator Dashboard, the picture is apparent of highly short-term trending asset classes. In general, the trend indicator have high readings – many cases above 2.0. What is also noteworthy is the negative long-term momentum for all asset classes.
We look at the current trend status among asset classes at the halfway point of 2014.
The Bull Mode concentration is persistently high. The current reading is 73%. No pure beta asset class is either in Weakness or Bear Mode. For details check the Trend Mode Report.
Even though a majority of the asset classes are in Bull Mode, the trend strength is not particularly short-term extended. View the current situation in the Overbought/Oversold Report.
Turning to volatility, the Variance Risk Premium report for EQ US Large Caps shows a situation of “Caution” among equity investors. However, digging deeper, the cautionary stance is more a result of seriously low realized volatility as opposed to elevated implied volatility.
Given the recent geopolitical tensions, how are various asset classes reacting? Multiple asset classes within Emerging Markets have left Bear mode, moving into Recovery and Strength. For details view the Trend Mode Report.